The latest projections from the National Cancer Registry (NCRI) show that, with the exception of leukaemia in males, all cancer types are projected to increase.
The incidence of lung cancer is predicted to rise by 136% in females and 52% in males. Cancers of the colon and the rectum are projected to increase by 120% to 130%.
The most rapidly rising cancers in both sexes are expected to be those of the skin — melanoma and non-melanoma.
The report also predicts that cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract — such as the oesophagus and the pancreas — will rise by over 100%. The report found future trends for breast and prostate cancer were difficult to predict.
Director of the NCRI, Dr Harry Comber, said changes in population were the main reason for the predicted increase.
“We are going through two transitions. Life expectancy is increasing so people are living longer. Also there is a big increase in the birth rate in the 1950s and 1960s and that now is percolating through to a higher number of people over 65 and 70 and that’s the age group who largely develop cancer. That would be the main reason for the increases,” he said.
However, the study also stressed that lifestyle factors, along with the expansion of population-based screening for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer, will also have an impact.
For example, 40% of the total cancer risk in Britain has been attributed to five lifestyle factors — tobacco, diet, overweight/obesity, alcohol, and low physical activity. The attributable risks in Ireland are likely to be similar, stated the report.
Source: Conall Ó Fátharta, Irish Examiner, 28/01/14
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